Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,887 — down approximately 48% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The chart above, which plots three-month candlesticks alongside the Parabolic SAR indicator from 2016 to today, provides useful context for where the current drawdown sits relative to prior cycles.
The Parabolic SAR is a trend-following indicator: when its dots appear below the price, it signals an uptrend; when they appear above, a downtrend. On a three-month timeframe, the flips are infrequent, which makes each one meaningful. Looking at the chart, three cycles are visible:
The first ran from 2017 through early 2019. Bitcoin peaked near $20,000 in December 2017, the SAR flipped bearish, and the price eventually bottomed near $3,200 in late 2018 — roughly an 84% decline from the high. A support base formed in the $3,500–$4,200 range through 2019 before the SAR turned bullish again.
The second ran from late 2021 through early 2023. Bitcoin peaked near $69,000 in November 2021, the SAR flipped bearish, and the price eventually bottomed near $15,500 in late 2022 — roughly a 78% decline. A base formed near $16,000–$17,000, and the SAR turned bullish in early 2023 as bitcoin reclaimed $28,000.
The current cycle: Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in late 2025. The SAR on this three-month chart flipped bearish in Q3 2025, and the indicator is now sitting approximately $83,000 — well above the current price. By the pattern of prior cycles, the SAR would need to flip back below price before a new sustained uptrend could be established on this time frame. That has not happened yet.
Two observations from the chart are worth noting. First, each successive bear-market low has been materially higher than the last — $3,200 in 2018, $15,500 in 2022, and a potential floor now forming in the $57,000–$60,000 range, which the black support line marks. If that level holds, the current draw-down would be closer to 54% from the peak, meaningfully shallower than the prior two cycles. Second, the time required to build a base and flip the SAR has shortened across cycles — roughly 14 months in the 2017–2019 bear, about 12 months in the 2021–2023 bear. If the pattern is consistent, a SAR flip on the three-month chart could occur sometime in late 2026 or early 2027, assuming the current support level holds.
None of this is predictive in a precise sense. The three-cycle sample is limited, macro conditions differ in each period, and the SAR is a lagging indicator by construction — it confirms trend changes after they occur rather than anticipating them. What the chart does provide is a framework for thinking about where bitcoin sits within its own historical rhythm.
So what could be the ultimate catalyst in 4th quarter of 2026 that would ignite the Bitcoin rally - or a fall that breaks this pattern ? Keep this chart in mind while waiting for it.